Mortgage rates pretty much held steady last week, which is good news for those wanting to refinance at a lower rate and for buyers, especially first time buyers. Freddie Macs Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for a 30 fixed loan was a scant 4.86%, up slightly from last weeks 4.84%. Last year at this time, while the "bubble" was bursting, mortgage rates were 6.01%.
Real estate professionals from around the country are reporting increasing sales, not by a lot, but increasing. Still, there is quite a bit of inventory out there on the books yet, meaning supply is still out in front of demand.
Another thorn, the major banks have been impediments standing in the way of short sales. Banks get less money in a short sale situation. Some banks, including Bank of America, have reportedly been taking a more rational stance lately on short sales to avoid the costly foreclosure process. So banks with a lot of inventory and eminent foreclosures will be able to get more homes off the market. They may take less money, but some is better than none and it lessons inventory which will eventually drive prices up.
Higher home prices will definitely be part of the near future. Good news for sellers and builders. Bad news for buyers. The time to buy is now. There's a good chance we're in the trough of this latest business cycle and about to start the recovery phase. When that happens home prices will rise and interest rates will soon follow to try and head off inflation.
Some really good news coming out has to do with the Governments $8000 tax credit for qualified first time home buyers. Right now the FHA is finalizing a plan that would allow for the tax credit to be used up front as a down payment. If, and when, this program goes through, it will be a big win for the market.
After the sub prime loan debacle of the last several years where anyone could get a loan and buy a house with no money down, no credit and in some cases no income, the banks have become much more strict in their lending practices. It's been difficult for this administration to get any momentum behind it's efforts to end the housing crisis. This new FHA program just makes sense. By giving the credit up front, it will greatly improve peoples ability to acquire financing with the required 3.5% down. There will still be income and credit qualifications so we don't end up in another mess like the one we're pulling out of, but it will help to get the ball rolling and get these houses off the market and lived in.
So again, the time to buy is now. The time to sell will be in the near future. Somewhere along that line the market will hit equilibrium, where it is the most beneficial for both buyer and seller, but for the most part one benefits more than the other. Right now it's the buyers turn. Right now it's a buyers market.
by Joel Weihe
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